Nigeria’s aspiration to become a $1tn economy by 2050 may rise or fall on decisions made about its youngest citizens today, according to the World Bank.

Speaking in Abuja during a high-level dialogue on Early Childhood, Productivity, and Nigeria’s Growth Choices organised by SBM Intelligence in collaboration with the World Bank and other Nigerian think tanks, Dr Ritgak Tilley-Gyado, Lead, Early Years Programme at the World Bank, framed early childhood development as a decisive economic strategy rather than a welfare concern.

She posed a critical question: can Nigeria realistically attain a trillion-dollar economy without deliberately investing in children aged 0–5 today — the very cohort that will be 15–21 years old by 2050 and entering or preparing to enter the labour force?

Her argument was clear: while public discourse often centres on macroeconomic reforms, infrastructure expansion and job creation, the foundation of human capital is laid long before adulthood — in the earliest years of life.

Early gaps, lifelong consequences

Tilley-Gyado stressed that disparities in learning ability, health outcomes and socio-emotional skills frequently begin before a child turns five. Once entrenched, they become significantly harder and more expensive to correct.

“Early childhood investment is not social spending. It is an economic strategy,” she said, noting that by adolescence or adulthood, attempts to address inequality are often reactive and costlier because foundational deficits have already solidified.

She illustrated this by comparing two children born with equal potential but raised in different environments. One benefits from adequate nutrition, safety and responsive caregiving; the other grows up amid illness, stress and limited support. By the time both enter school, their developmental trajectories have already diverged — with long-term implications for productivity and earnings.

Fragmented policies, fragmented outcomes

The World Bank official also criticised policy fragmentation across ministries, warning that children do not grow up in administrative silos. Weak coordination across health, nutrition, sanitation, protection and early learning, she argued, undermines outcomes even in households striving to provide stability.

She cautioned that Nigeria’s youthful population alone will not guarantee prosperity.

“Demographics alone do not guarantee prosperity. A young population becomes an asset only when its youngest children develop the capabilities to thrive as adults,” she said.

Without deliberate, coordinated investment, rapid population growth could deepen inequality rather than drive inclusive growth.

The economics of early investment

Drawing on global evidence, Tilley-Gyado said early childhood interventions generate some of the highest returns available to societies. She cited estimates suggesting that every dollar invested in early years development can yield up to $13 in higher productivity, improved earnings and reduced long-term social costs.

Also speaking, Ikemesit Effiong, Managing Partner at SBM Intelligence, described early childhood deprivation as a “productivity crisis that arrives 20 years before someone first searches for a job.”

Referencing the 2024 Demographic and Health Survey, he noted that under-five mortality has declined to about 110 deaths per 1,000 live births from 132 in 2018. However, neonatal mortality remains high at around 41 per 1,000 live births, while roughly 40 per cent of Nigerian children under five are stunted.

“These are not just health statistics; they are early warnings about the future workforce, future taxpayers and future innovators our economy will either have or not have,” Effiong said.

He warned that persistent underinvestment in the first 1,000 days of life would weaken returns from later public spending on education and skills development.

Brain development and the first 2,000 days

Dr Tosin Olorunmoteni, a paediatric neuroscientist at Obafemi Awolowo University, emphasised that early childhood development rests on a “nurturing care framework” built on health, nutrition, responsive caregiving, safety and early learning.

She highlighted that brain development is most rapid in the first 2,000 days of life, making this window critical for shaping cognitive, emotional and social outcomes.

Olorunmoteni warned that nearly half of Nigerian children live in poverty, about 40 per cent are stunted, and millions remain out of school. Exposure to violence, poor sanitation and weak health systems, she said, continues to negatively influence developmental pathways from birth.

She called for a comprehensive national strategy combining universal support with targeted interventions for vulnerable children, backed by improved screening systems, stronger data and coordinated service delivery.

From policy to implementation

Dr Joe Abah, Country Director of DAI Global, argued that Nigeria’s early childhood challenge is less about policy absence and more about weak coordination, poor financing and limited accountability.

Although the Child Rights Act has been adopted nationwide and multiple policies exist, he noted that implementation remains fragmented and funding inadequate. He called for a unified, multisectoral framework with clear budget commitments, robust monitoring mechanisms and high-level political oversight to place the child — rather than bureaucratic structures — at the centre of governance.

The discussion comes amid renewed regional commitments, with northern governors recently affirming their focus on prioritising the first 2,000 days of children’s lives following engagements with World Bank officials.

The overarching message from the dialogue was unmistakable: if Nigeria’s $1tn ambition is to move beyond rhetoric, investment in early childhood must be treated not as optional social policy but as core economic infrastructure.