The Federal Government’s €2.3 billion Presidential Power Initiative (PPI), designed to ramp up Nigeria’s electricity generation to 25,000 megawatts (MW) between 2020 and 2025, has formally closed without achieving its core objectives.

Investigations reveal that the five-year programme, executed by Siemens of Germany under FGN Power, failed to lift power generation beyond 7,000MW as projected.

Under the PPI roadmap, the government aimed to scale generation, transmission and distribution capacity in phases — 7,000MW by 2021, 11,000MW by 2023 and 25,000MW by 2025. However, latest data from the Nigerian Independent System Operator (NISO) shows the country still struggles to generate 5,000MW, transmit just over 4,000MW and distribute about 3,000MW to more than 200 million citizens.

Industry operators attribute the shortfall to chronic infrastructure decay, high technical and commercial losses, weak metering penetration and liquidity constraints across the value chain.

Although Nigeria’s installed generation capacity is officially above 12,000MW, actual available and dispatched power remains limited due to gas shortages, grid instability and weak distribution networks.

FGN Power Promises Fresh Projects

Reacting to the development, FGN Power said financing arrangements were critical to project execution and insisted that due process and statutory approvals were necessary to safeguard national interest.

The company disclosed that Phase 1, Batch 1 projects involve five substations — Abeokuta, Ayede, Onitsha, Sokoto and Offa — expected to be completed between 2026 and 2027. These, it said, would add 984MW of wheeling capacity.

Under Phase 1, Batch 2, contracts for 12 additional substations are expected to be signed in May 2026, with completion targeted for 2028.

Transmission, Distribution Remain Weakest Links

Professor Yemi Oke, an energy law expert at the University of Lagos, identified distribution as the sector’s weakest link.

He noted that metering gaps, estimated billing, energy theft, poor tariff collection and huge commercial losses continue to undermine performance.

“Transmission is also a serious challenge,” he said, citing frequent grid collapses, vandalism, load rejection and obsolete infrastructure under the Transmission Company of Nigeria (TCN).

Oke advocated decentralised systems such as mini-grids and embedded generation, arguing that excessive reliance on the national grid is outdated and inefficient.

Economic Consequences Mount

Dr Chinyere Almona, Director-General of the Lagos Chamber of Commerce and Industry (LCCI), said missed targets have imposed heavy costs on businesses and households.

She explained that companies continue to rely on diesel and petrol generators, increasing production costs and weakening competitiveness.

According to her, unreliable electricity discourages foreign direct investment and undermines industrial expansion, especially among SMEs.

The Centre for the Promotion of Private Enterprise (CPPE) echoed similar concerns, warning that without stable power, economic growth and job creation would remain subdued.

It noted that Nigeria’s competitiveness under the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) remains threatened by high production costs driven by energy instability.

Tinubu’s GAMCO Raises Questions

Meanwhile, President Bola Tinubu has approved the establishment of a Grid Assets Management Company (GAMCO) to address stranded power and transmission bottlenecks.

The Chief of Staff to the President, Femi Gbajabiamila, inaugurated an 11-member committee to develop the framework for the new entity.

According to him, GAMCO aims to unlock stranded capacity from selected Niger Delta Power Holding Company (NDPHC) plants — including Omotosho, Olorunsogo and Ihovbor — and build a high-capacity transmission corridor along the Benin–Lagos axis.

However, concerns have been raised over potential overlaps between GAMCO and existing institutions, including the Transmission Company of Nigeria and FGN Power.

Power advocacy group PowerUp Nigeria questioned the clarity of GAMCO’s mandate and whether it would duplicate existing structures.

Experts insist that without addressing governance gaps, infrastructure deficits and regulatory inconsistencies, new initiatives may struggle to deliver different outcomes.

A Persistent Power Paradox

Despite repeated reforms and billions of euros invested, Nigeria’s electricity sector remains trapped in a cycle of ambitious targets and missed deadlines.

Analysts say the failure of the PPI is not merely technical but reflects deeper structural and institutional weaknesses.

For Africa’s largest economy, reliable power remains the missing link to industrialisation, competitiveness and sustainable growth.